Stay Convinced

 In ithought, Market Wrap, Shyam Sekhar

Being a Contrarian is never easy. Most of the time, the Contrarian makes choices that are very different from the consensus. Given that consensus is far more powerful, a Contrarian has to withstand time and performance pressures for a very long time. Only if he holds steady can he benefit from his Contrarian bent. If he wilts under the pressures of consensus, he may end up losing out both ways.

The timing of changing his investment stance may lead to a downside. And, by submitting to consensus, he may have well let go of the upside, that quality contrarian investing could bestow upon him. This often happens at the most inopportune time.

The most important thing now is to stick to conviction and wait for consensus to follow you. The wild swings in commodities have adversely impacted sentiment. While sentiment turned bad on soaring oil prices, the sharp correction underway has changed things dramatically. If oil softens further, we should see consensus shift dramatically.

The defensive trade has outlived its shelf life and we should see people more willing to take up a top-down trade on the return of economic growth. The weeks ahead promise to be volatile and transformational.

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