Expectations of a stimulus are running high. The wishlist is long. People are adding their own tail to the already extended list. A drop in GST for automobiles, cheaper loans, more aggressive scrappage policy (for automobiles), waiver of super-rich tax, relief for FPIs, the abolition of LTCG, and many more.…
Every bull market leaves its imprint behind. Stocks that rose sharply in a bull run tend to fall doubly quick afterwards. But, what about those stocks that hardly participated in the bull run? They make an even stronger impression. There will always be parts of the bull market which are…
The week closed on an expectant note. The market expects the government to do effective damage control. The expectations are centered around clear action points. FPI concerns need to be addressed credibly. The NBFC crisis needs a resolution of liquidity issues. The reserve bank must decisively lower interest rates. Banks…
The phenomenon of economic growth engines slowing down is not new. 2012 was the last time we saw something comparable. Growth really worried the government then. So, what makes this time different? Slowdowns at the beginning of a government’s term can truly shake up their finances. It can disrupt revenues,…
The market is showing a palpable despondency. The cause is being overtly attributed to the sentiment related to tax law changes and treatment of the FPIs and the super-rich. This premise is more of an excuse. Investing is a function of attractiveness of valuations and lure of growth. The fact…
Some battles are fought with such intensity that distinguishing the superiority of the winner becomes difficult to justify. It is challenging to decisively say that one is better than the other. Two recent battles tell us that even better players have their odd days. One was the cricket game where the…
Weeks after the election results, we saw oil prices spike and the trade wars worsen. Yet, FII flows into Indian markets held steady and India’s forex reserves hit an all-time high. Elsewhere, gold prices hit a six-year high. Clearly, something very interesting seems to be happening in currency, gold and…
Economic news will turn speculative in the coming weeks. We will either be sold hope or fear depending on the intent of the newsmakers. The budget will always be an event around which volatility will be more, speculative activity will rise, guesswork will be dominant, and the excitement quotient will…
When you start an investment, journey counts. Given that most people aggressively start investing around market peaks, their starting point is not ideal. Most investors tend to scale up their equity investing around market peaks. While this has become a way of life, the subsequent behavioral responses matter for their…
The RBI’s monetary policy announcement did not do much to improve the market sentiment. The clear shift in stance, willingness to be accommodative, the confidence on inflation management and a decisive bend to act and do more if necessary were all simply not enough to reassure markets. The markets seem…
A new cabinet took office last week. Economic data for the last year was released shortly after. Clearly, the new government has no honeymoon period. It must hit the ground running. Even though the challenges are clear and everyone knows what needs to be done, the way forward is still…
The last week saw turbulence in the guidance of a global Indian IT giant. They marked their guidance down taking their stock down sharply. Domestic IT companies had however not dropped their guidance in their earnings calls done weeks earlier. When one company, and especially a large one, drops its…
