Year – ends have their own way of playing out on the investor psyche. The year end is not really an event of economic significance. Not much changes on the economic front when the calendar turns into a new year. Yet, there are different schools of analysis predicting how investor…
Success stories often sound like fairy tales where one is led to believe that sudden transformations change a person’s fortunes. But, in practice, transformation is a process. Most processes are slow, measured, and milestone-driven. Each little change that a person made to the process matters greatly to the outcome. But,…
As I sit down to write this note, the Sensex is down 24% for 2011. Equities have been the worst performing asset class and the reasons are clear and adequately reflected in a situation where market sentiment has been weak and investor interest quite indifferent. The question often being asked…
Quick edit: The capitulation did not happen this week. Nerves cooled down and value investors were busy buying selectively towards the weekend. As the markets head into the last trading week, we can’t help wondering aloud if the direction will reverse earlier than what most investors believe it will. The…
As we draw towards the close of 2011, it is a good time to reflect on the year that has gone by, which has not been the best one for equity investors. For people like me, the years I have put into equity research has taught me that that there will…
Quick edit: Everybody thinks that the BSE sensex will hit 14000 or 12,000 before it rebounds. We are told that the market simply cant go up without going further down. Really? Experience actually tells us to believe in the converse. Nobody knows where the markets will bottom. Actually, the markets…
Events tend to throw the world into chaos. With the world in chaos, the stock markets inevitably see mayhem. The mayhem in Europe in recent weeks is only evidence of one thing. The more things change in the world, the more our behavior towards investments remains the same. I remember…
Quick Edit: A company’s valuation is lower than the notional guideline value of the land on which its factory is built. It even has already sourced alternate land to shift its business and commence operations. It has very stable earnings and no debt. The company’s sum of the parts valuation…
Quick edit: Relative valuation is a great way to evaluate asset classes. To make the most out of money, it makes sense to buy what is relatively attractive. If we invest in an asset class which is relatively cheaper than others, we limit our downside and set ourselves for the…
Quick edit: The Stock Market had a whitewash this week. It went down every single day. The bulls who trade had a tough time. Selling seems the simplest way to make money. Anything you sell goes down the next day. This rather predictable behavior of stocks has emboldened sellers and…
Quick edit: A slowdown has a way of spreading. Some sectors hold up longer than the rest. Over time, a slowdown hits most sectors and create a perception of fear and despondency. We are into a phase when nothing seems to be going right. The three i ‘s – Inflation…