The extension of single party rule in India is now clearly off our radar. The 2019 general elections will be won on the strength of alliances. Obviously, the ruling party will need to reboot its strategy while the opposition suddenly seems to have begun its preparation earlier. As investors, we…
The FIIs are back. November clearly showed a change of mind. The DIIs continue to receive money from domestic investors. It is in this scenario that we go into the last phase of state elections. If the verdict in the five states is not too adverse, we could see a…
The rapid decline in oil, over the past few weeks, has really mixed it up for the markets. Investors who took a certain view of the macros just a month ago when oil hit $85 are now forced to hurriedly review their position. This must be quite harrowing as investment…
Rising oil and dollar mean only one thing for the Indian economy – trouble in the near-term. Business fortunes and purchasing power are closely intertwined with oil and the dollar. Inflation could rear its ugly head if both oil and dollar become difficult to manage for the government. Stock markets…
If an asset class is hitting multi-year lows, then we tend to move away from it. On the contrary, when an asset class is nearing multi-year highs, we see the most clamour for it. Investor behaviour tends to shun risk exactly when valuations are very much in favour. The current…
Podcast Transcript The markets are hitting new highs. But my advisor says, “Think long term”. I asked him if we need to book some profits. He says “Do nothing, just let the investments stay.” Friends, keep bringing up these conversations more frequently these days. The problem with…
In good years, defensive investors have to be content with the KNOWLEDGE that their gains, although perhaps less than maximal, were achieved with risk protection in place, even though it turned out to be not needed. – Howard Marks Every investor scrutinizes the relationship between risk and…
Podcast Transcript When we find valuations at extremes, it usually is at the most difficult time. We struggle to decide how to deal with them. Mostly, amongst us, the risk averse find it convenient not to deal with them. We find it natural to do nothing. We avoid them. Our…
Podcast Transcript: When markets reach all time highs we are always told SIPs are the best way to invest in equity. Just starting an SIP is seems as a formula for success. Initially, this works extremely well. But, when markets peak out, the problems begin. While all of know…
Market cycles tend to constantly throw challenges at investors. When markets are at cyclical highs, it is extremely difficult to sell and exit. When markets trade near cyclical lows, taking a bold investment call is near impossible. When the markets trade on an uptrend, we tend to keep buying more…
The sharp comeback in pharma stocks, the buyback announcement by TCS, and the sustained weakness in midcaps send out clear signals. The markets are at the crossroads. Liquidity and its power to sustain equity valuations have been overestimated. You may wonder why this is happening. As a performance hugging universe,…