Interest rates have been falling through this year. As the RBI’s monetary policy committee met last week, consensus was trying to decide on how much the interest rates would be cut. It arrived at a cut of 25 bps. The RBI decided not to reduce interest rates. Instead, it chose…
When bad news is expected, its arrival is likely to be a non-event. The news of poor GDP numbers for Q2 falls squarely in that category. But markets will always move ahead and start anticipating the next bit of news. This move significantly impacts sentiment. The market trend would reflect…
What should I say now about 2020? This question is on top of everyone’s mind. The minuscule minority who got their investment calls right in 2019 are certain that their investment style is the only way going forward. Those who haven’t got it right saw some green shoots last week.…
A friend was in a state of gloom. He was feeling bad that he hadn’t bought those five big winners of 2019. “If I had bought those, I could have returned big.” Hindsight retained its teaching honours. But, there still is a future beyond those five names. So the next…
Contrarian investing is never easy. Especially when you are early. Being early makes you see your investments temporarily lose value. At times, it can be as steep as 15%-20%. Those times will be testing. You hesitate to invest more. You wonder if you are wrong. The temptation to get away…
Regardless of whether markets rose or fell, one set of stocks simply kept rising. And, another set of stocks, which encompassed the broader market simply kept falling. This trend finally seems set to break. When we have extreme overvaluation in one part of the market and significant undervaluation in the…
Every Diwali, as Muhurat trading nears, hope fills our hearts, optimism swells about tomorrow, and a feel-good factor pervades. If you are an Indian investor, this sentiment is universal. In an economy that has grown from weakness to strength, then from strength to weakness, and again back all the way…
The week saw the long best the shorts. After a spell of selling, FII’s turned buyers of Indian equity again. While the reasons behind their change of heart are not clear, only sustained buying by them can turn the trade into a trend. While it will take a few weeks…
In bad markets, one clearly visible tendency is to start thinking in “What if” mode. When returns look below expectations, we want to think that we could have done better. So, we think of what we did not do in the past and wonder if that was the better choice…
Another exciting trading week saw several companies trip and lose significant valuation. This trend has become almost routine. Week after week, we are seeing more companies trip up. Naturally, this has a significant bearing on sentiment. As this almost starts to look like a trend, the negativity is spiking sharply.…
The market’s disappointment with its own response to the tax cuts is hardly surprising. The market has this acute habit of hoping that all good things will come to its aid. Investors believe their portfolios have a natural right to benefit from path-breaking policy moves. The readiness of their invested…
பொருளாதாரத்தில் மாற்றங்கள் என்பது வாரத்திற்கு ஒருமுறை நிகழக்கூடியது அல்ல; மெதுவாக இயங்கும் ஒரு தொடர் நிகழ்வு. இதனை நாம் உணரும்போது நம்மிடையே உற்சாகம் குறையலாம். ஆனால், இத்தகைய மெதுவான மாற்றங்கள் பொருளாதாரத்தை சிறப்பான இடத்தை நோக்கி நகற்றுகின்றனவா, மோசமான இடத்தை நோக்கி நகற்றுகின்றனவா என்பதை கூர்ந்து கவனிக்க வேண்டும். பங்குக் குறீயீடுகளினால் பொருளாதார முன்னேற்றம் ஏற்படுவதாக முதலீட்டாளர்கள் அடிக்கடி எண்ணிகொள்கின்றனர். கண்டிப்பாக, அப்படி எண்ணுவது சரியான வழி அல்ல. தற்போதுள்ள…
