Smell the change in the air.
The big picture of the economy doesn’t change every weekend. Unlike the cinemas which keep shifting the big picture every week, the economy changes to a slow progression. That makes the excitement quotient very low when we study an economy in slow change. All we need to focus upon is whether the change in the economy is for the better or worse. Investors often try to measure economic progress through stock indices. Surely, that is not the best way to do it. After all, the stock market is a voting machine and not a weighing machine. Voting is not the best way to measure economic change. A better way would be to evaluate the impact of change. Given the slow nature of any economic progression, we should look for pointers. One major pointer at this point of time is the soft prices of commodities. This could not have come at a better time for India. Business will greatly benefit from soft commodity prices and this will show in the coming quarters. When change is slower than the markets would like, they will get impatient. It is such impatience that investors must learn to profit from. When markets get impatient, one must learn to be a patient contrarian. Economic recovery always tests one’s patience far more than his intelligence. Being aware and responsive to the economic context is what investors must now learn. Those who manage this well will see the magnitude of the opportunity before them. Others will drown in the noise.
Most people never run far enough on their first wind to find out they’ve got a second. -William James