A New Financial Year
A new financial year brings along newer opportunities and challenges. A financial year which follows an extremely profitable investment year will always have the challenge of delivering comparable performance. After a good year, we expect the next to be even better.
But, when the year gets progressively tougher, then the closing mood sets the tone for the year ahead. If the mood is glum at the beginning of a new year and the follow-up events promise more uncertainty, then the statistics of the previous year will have little or no meaning for the year in store. We seem to be in that phase where the past year really has no bearing on the upcoming one.
So, we need to put behind the past and pragmatically view the future. The future certainly does not promise to be easy and predictable. Actually, it looks far more complex than the previous year.
The alignment between global and domestic markets worked perfectly last year. Towards the close, we seem to be preparing for a year when this compact will definitively be broken. Domestic investor confidence will be tested in the coming year. Early indicators are not as promising with clear signs of a behavioural crack very much visible among domestic investors. If they further lose their faith in Indian equities, we are likely to see our markets come under severe strain. We already know the stance of global investors. They don’t seem to be inclined towards Indian equities. If the strong domestic appetite weakens, we could see the challenges mount for our markets. The wall of fear to be climbed will look suddenly taller.
The first quarter will set the tone and context for the upcoming financial year. Investors must be ready and willing to see the challenges mount and still be willing to make use of opportunities that come their way. General elections are scheduled for May 2019. Advancing them will make the financial year 2018-19 very eventful, interesting and challenging.
“For last year’s words belong to last year’s language and next year’s words await another voice.” – T. S. Eliot