The genesis for the current meltdown in Indian markets must be understood well and remembered for a long time to come. Interestingly, the indices held steady during this period. So, what caused this downslide? Broadly, the markets showed overwhelming faith in smaller companies over the index bellwethers between 2015 and…
Podcast Transcript: My stance on mid-cap funds has been bearish in a while. After the dream run between 2013 and 2017, I started to feel very uneasy about them from September 2017. I had been advising clients to invest in the very funds when the valuations were softer and definitely…
Monetary Policy: As the macroeconomic outlook becomes less transparent the monetary policy committee has only become more steadfast in its neutral stance. This leaves room for all possible outcomes and actions. The neutral stance has often been equated to a status quo for policy rates. So, the rate hike of…
“Large caps look inexpensive compared to small and midcaps.” A value investing peer said this in a rather complaining tone. To investors who made most of their wealth buying small and midcaps, these are troubling times indeed. The situation has remained so for the past year. Investors have been struggling…
Interest rates are a great leveller. They always set the trends of the equity markets. But we have two sets of rates to contend with, domestic and global rates. Domestic interest rate trends are constantly shifting and puzzling. Just when the trend seems set to rise, something happens which softens…
Market Outlook: Volatility has struck debt and equity markets in equal measure in 2018. Valuations continue to remain an area of concern with respect to equity markets and volatility will continue to persist until earnings match valuations. This is a global phenomenon and is not restricted to domestic equity markets.…
When markets correct sharply, where are you looking? This question assumes special significance as the indices are down 10%+ from this year’s highs. And the lows don’t seem imminently near. Effectively, we are now in a market where everybody has overplayed their hand. And, when you have overplayed your hand,…
Politics makes a huge comeback in the stock markets, exactly when the markets are not ready for it. Unlike other market disruptions which pan out as standalone events, politics sets off a trend resulting in a series of events. Throw in a few economic events from time to time between the…
The Indian markets started 2018 with an exaggerated sense of optimism. Clearly, headline numbers were lagging the markets. As the market moves towards the end of a financial year, that exaggeration is swiftly disappearing and getting replaced by fear. We could see an overreaction on the other side too. And,…
A not so innocuous news report by a global brokerage set us thinking about where we are headed as a market. ” $1.2 billion waiting to get into midcaps says CLSA”. The logic behind this premise interested us even more than the actual premise. The premise was that mutual fund…
The FIIs have been persistent sellers of Indian equities. DIIs have bought steadily and supported the market. This explains the index not losing much despite heavy selling by FIIs. The regular domestic inflows are helping DIIs hold the market at higher levels. In specific areas, like midcaps, we see funds…
The recent weeks are seeing the trend turn in several areas. Investment flows are looking very different with the persistent selling of FIIs in Indian equity. News flows are also not looking great in February. For instance, first we had the budget levied long term capital gains tax on equities.…
