The week saw the long best the shorts. After a spell of selling, FII’s turned buyers of Indian equity again. While the reasons behind their change of heart are not clear, only sustained buying by them can turn the trade into a trend. While it will take a few weeks…
In bad markets, one clearly visible tendency is to start thinking in “What if” mode. When returns look below expectations, we want to think that we could have done better. So, we think of what we did not do in the past and wonder if that was the better choice…
Another exciting trading week saw several companies trip and lose significant valuation. This trend has become almost routine. Week after week, we are seeing more companies trip up. Naturally, this has a significant bearing on sentiment. As this almost starts to look like a trend, the negativity is spiking sharply.…
The market’s disappointment with its own response to the tax cuts is hardly surprising. The market has this acute habit of hoping that all good things will come to its aid. Investors believe their portfolios have a natural right to benefit from path-breaking policy moves. The readiness of their invested…
It was a trading week that would best fit the Bollywood description of a potboiler. From fear to gloom, and then to despair, the market had almost given up when Friday reversed the mood magnificently to create a typical happy end to the week’s drama. The government decided that it…
To sell 2% of a PSU the government destroyed 10% of its market cap. Nobody cared about the impact cost of disinvestment borne by existing shareholders. For the government to hit its targets, shareholders were made to pay dearly. Naturally, nobody trusts the government anymore and preferred selling PSUs at…
It is becoming increasingly clear that liquidity will be sloshing all over. China has signaled its intent to cut rates and raise liquidity. India has already raised liquidity and promises to cut rates. Both countries are letting their currencies fall. The US is acting tough on China and making trade…
The GDP data has been getting worse for a while. The latest Q1 data which came on Friday beat all expectations hollow on the downside. Clearly, it was a howler. The interesting point to note is the setting and drama that surrounded this release. The minister addressed a presser on…
When people stop spending, it is a sign of fear. When people stop investing, that too is a sign of fear. The signs of fear seemed to be spreading fast and the government knew it well. Debating whether there is a basis for such fear may not ease the situation…
The week closed on an expectant note. The market expects the government to do effective damage control. The expectations are centered around clear action points. FPI concerns need to be addressed credibly. The NBFC crisis needs a resolution of liquidity issues. The reserve bank must decisively lower interest rates. Banks…
The phenomenon of economic growth engines slowing down is not new. 2012 was the last time we saw something comparable. Growth really worried the government then. So, what makes this time different? Slowdowns at the beginning of a government’s term can truly shake up their finances. It can disrupt revenues,…
Weeks after the election results, we saw oil prices spike and the trade wars worsen. Yet, FII flows into Indian markets held steady and India’s forex reserves hit an all-time high. Elsewhere, gold prices hit a six-year high. Clearly, something very interesting seems to be happening in currency, gold and…
