Suez Canal Is A Black Swan


A week back, the Suez canal was just another place at the back of your mind. Today, we know that at least 50 ships pass through it every day. The Suez Canal facilitates 12% of global trade. The cost of a blockage is pegged at $400 million per hour. That’s a hefty price to pay.

The Ever Given, a large container ship is lodged sideways in the canal. It’s blocking both North and South routes. Tug boats are working day and night to dislodge it and free up space for traffic. There seems no solution in immediate sight. Could it take weeks before the problem is solved?

Oil prices have shot up. The NASDAQ corrected. The Sensex and Nifty also dipped. Sea trade through the canal is temporarily stalled.

Nobody factored the Suez Canal into any of their predictions. This simply goes to show that we can’t predict. All we know is that there’s always going to be a black swan. In 2020, it was COVID. Right now, it’s the Ever Given. The world is constantly going to surprise us.

How do we ensure that surprises don’t change our strategy?

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