Budgets come and go. We unfailingly judge every budget. Our judgements happen based on the way the budget speech is constructed. The imaginative writing of a speech tends to excite markets. But, budgets have to rise beyond the speech and deliver on the numbers. This naturally happens over the entire year. So, what is the hype and hoopla all about? Budgets have mostly lost the ability to sustain the manufactured hype. Investors return to focus on how the economy performs once the budget hype runs out of steam. Yet, there is an entire industry that thrives on the budget. Rather than focus on expectations, we should focus on performance. If the budget meets the estimates of the previous year and sets realistic estimates for the next, it would hit the target. A budget’s success rests in its ability to set and manage its numbers realistically. When expectations are set realistically, the battle is half won. The remaining part plays out over time. So, the hype and hoopla TV industry can be given a pass. In the long run, performance always prevails over opinion.
I’m always fully invested. It’s a great feeling to be caught with your pants up.- Peter Lynch.