What should I say now about 2020? This question is on top of everyone’s mind. The minuscule minority who got their investment calls right in 2019 are certain that their investment style is the only way going forward. Those who haven’t got it right saw some green shoots last week. Things seem to be looking up for them. But, they are far removed from exuding confidence in their investment approach. Many milestones need to be crossed for them to talk bravely. This brings us to the stigma attached to brave talk. While having very high conviction is every investor’s right, he still needs to be judicious in expressing his conviction. Such are the times.
But, near term success and failure are both leading to the wrong kind of public posturing. The successful investors are grandstanding and the not so successful ones are overly diffident. Neither approach is sacrosanct. We have seen the markets shift focus very quickly at the turn of every year and taking success for granted can turn very painful.
On the contrary, approaches which struggle in one year make a sharp comeback in subsequent ones. A measured and pragmatic position will help those who had a bad 2019 prepare rightly for 2020. The coming weeks should set the tone for the bigger market trends to get rejigged. So, it makes sense for investors and opinion makers alike to be more composed.
Think through your conviction mosaic and make them future-ready. The markets clearly have big surprises awaiting us.