Can the markets sustain the prevailing high valuations? Nobody is sure whether the market can actually sustain, but everybody is hopeful that it would. This explains the sustained optimism in expensive stocks and the persistent buying in expensive mutual fund schemes. Investors expect the recent trend of listing gains and thematic investing to sustain. Thus explaining the heavy oversubscription in the flood of IPO issuances and strong participation in thematic Mutual Fund NFOs.
Clearly, recency bias on the ground is extremely strong. The fear of missing out is running high in the investor community. But, take a cursory look at what happened to the valuations of the bluest of blue chips and you realise that industry leaders like Asian paints and Bajaj Auto have been punished by the market for underperformance and the inability to grow profits adequately.
This is where we see an anomaly in market behaviour. Investors are not connecting the dots clearly and the only reason one can attribute to this behaviour is their unrelenting obsession for select themes. Company level underperformance is often overlooked when thematic obsession is dominant.
So we see sustained inflows into smallcap and midcap schemes despite the rich valuations and slowing growth. The markets expect growth to return quickly so that the prevailing valuations are justifiable. This means we are continuing to invest on expectations which could turn out to be wrong. What will happen if we go wrong in this?
We will see an exact repeat of what happened in Asian Paints and Bajaj Auto, in midcaps and small caps. Yet markets are showing confidence and overlooking that prospect. The coming quarters will be crucial for these two themes. If markets are further disappointed, we will see the stock prices of underwhelming companies sharply recoil.
This can happen in the best of companies and the market seems completely unprepared for such an event. When your assumptions start failing and expectations are belied, assuming outcome certainty becomes your biggest investment risk. Companies meeting and exceeding expectations are extremely critical for current investing in small and midcap funds to succeed.