A rather eventful year draws to a tiring close. Investors have mostly been wrong in their market predictions of 2019. Their return expectations have been rooted in belief in most asset classes.
2019 was one of those years where the equity and debt markets seem to have optically done great, yet investors were completely left out of the benefits. This trend is not unusual or surprising. There are always those middle years in market cycles when trends take you around in circles. Investors take time to settle down to a new market cycle.
Older favourites need to be shed creating room for newer ones. 2019 was a year of such tiring rejigging. 2020 should see the market letting the pieces fall into place for a future market cycle. Gazing into the immediate past won’t help us read the future. This is about intensely reading the tea leaves. It is about visualizing the future, creating growth markers, identifying what businesses will benefit along the way, and betting on them.
Consensus will continue to elude. Early adapters of themes should learn to wait for consensus to show up. 2019 tested our patience even as consensus eluded us. 2020 will definitely bridge the gap bringing us closer to consensus. Like the famous cricketing format, we will see some brisk market action in 2020.
That’s the good news as we say adieu to 2019.