In good years, defensive investors have to be content with the KNOWLEDGE that their gains, although perhaps less than maximal, were achieved with risk protection in place, even though it turned out to be not needed. – Howard Marks Every investor scrutinizes the relationship between risk and…
The power of prescience is not something that is easy to practice in our investing. Knowing something in advance can be unfair advantage if it is from knowledgeable sources. So being fair and prescient at the same time is very important. But, there always is the option to independently anticipate what…
Podcast Transcript When we find valuations at extremes, it usually is at the most difficult time. We struggle to decide how to deal with them. Mostly, amongst us, the risk averse find it convenient not to deal with them. We find it natural to do nothing. We avoid them. Our…
The genesis for the current meltdown in Indian markets must be understood well and remembered for a long time to come. Interestingly, the indices held steady during this period. So, what caused this downslide? Broadly, the markets showed overwhelming faith in smaller companies over the index bellwethers between 2015 and…
Podcast Transcript: When markets reach all time highs we are always told SIPs are the best way to invest in equity. Just starting an SIP is seems as a formula for success. Initially, this works extremely well. But, when markets peak out, the problems begin. While all of know…
Market cycles tend to constantly throw challenges at investors. When markets are at cyclical highs, it is extremely difficult to sell and exit. When markets trade near cyclical lows, taking a bold investment call is near impossible. When the markets trade on an uptrend, we tend to keep buying more…
Podcast Transcript: We attribute investment success to many things. Most of these attributes tend to be external factors. The easy list of attributes tends to gravitate towards luck, timing and capital. But these are intangibles without clear patterns and to-do methods. Often, they are best explained only in hindsight.…
The sharp comeback in pharma stocks, the buyback announcement by TCS, and the sustained weakness in midcaps send out clear signals. The markets are at the crossroads. Liquidity and its power to sustain equity valuations have been overestimated. You may wonder why this is happening. As a performance hugging universe,…
While the markets were focused on equities, yields on the 10-Year gilt quietly rose to cross 8% again. With other asset classes like real estate not doing much, and returns from equities clearly slowing down, debt makes a clear comeback as an option for conservative investors. Over the next few…
Podcast Transcript: My stance on mid-cap funds has been bearish in a while. After the dream run between 2013 and 2017, I started to feel very uneasy about them from September 2017. I had been advising clients to invest in the very funds when the valuations were softer and definitely…
“Large caps look inexpensive compared to small and midcaps.” A value investing peer said this in a rather complaining tone. To investors who made most of their wealth buying small and midcaps, these are troubling times indeed. The situation has remained so for the past year. Investors have been struggling…