The Indian markets seem to be entering a very interesting phase. On the one hand, the interest in public sector stocks is rising due to investors’ focus on critical infrastructure sectors like railways and defence. On the other hand, the top-run public sector banks- SBI and Bank of Baroda have…
The best businesses can see very sharp swings in valuations. Just a small earnings disappointment, a moderating growth forecast and uncertainty on inflation have once again taught us a very simple lesson. This lesson has happened in the best of FAANG stocks. The markets have shown these marquee companies a…
Diwali to Diwali we have had a very sombre Samvat. We are entering the new Samvat on a note of caution. Our expectations are clearly running low. We sense trouble from global markets. We are aware that inflation must be tamed within a reasonable time horizon. We respect the unknown…
The story of King Canute goes that he stood in front of the tide demanding that the sea recede. This is a story of greater forces humbling power. The Federal Reserve’s messaging is clear: it wants full employment and inflation at 2%. But, higher interest rates and aggressive communications will…
The rupee closed at an all-time low of 82.32. Year to date, it has depreciated more than 7.5%. While the rupee’s performance is still better than global peers, it has become a cause for concern for FII. YTD, the FII and FPI have taken out 1.5 Lakh Crores from Indian…
The debate on whether our markets are completely coupled or can actually be decoupled with the US markets is an endless one. But, in our obsession with the global markets, we assume that anything that affects their economies will also affect us. Historically, a lot has happened in common or…
The market is reacting to the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy announcement. The Fed is keen on doing whatever it takes to bring inflation down to 2%. This commitment to raising rates (evidenced in the Fed’s dot plot) well into 2023 spooked US markets, and now the contagion is spreading. It…
The weakening of sentiment in the US markets is happening. We are witnessing home loans getting pricier, new starts in housing shrinking, inflation coming down month on month, and investors reacting very sharply to bad news. The sharp fall in stocks like FedEx and Adobe in a single trading session…
The market has surprised equity Strategists again. The sustained rally in both global and Indian stocks is the reason. It was generally expected that the rally would lose momentum and selling would resume. But, the rally has regained strength and spread into the most unexpected places. Domestic markets are seeing…
India heads into a very critical economic phase. On the macro front, we need to manage our inflation, exchange rate and deficits better. We need to moderate the impact of potential swings in these three factors. We will always stay in a state of alert to ensure things remain under…
Macro signals play a very important role in deciding the market trajectory. The Jackson hole speech by Jerome Powell has clearly signalled that interest rate hikes in the USA are here to stay. Powell unequivocally states that there is no space to stop or pause interest rate hikes. He clearly…
A bear market rally is an opportunity that you are never prepared for. It catches you by surprise and continues to surprise you with how far it can go, and how long it can last. Bear market rallies are mostly unpredictable. But they have the tendency to make you believe…