The weakening of sentiment in the US markets is happening. We are witnessing home loans getting pricier, new starts in housing shrinking, inflation coming down month on month, and investors reacting very sharply to bad news. The sharp fall in stocks like FedEx and Adobe in a single trading session…
The market has surprised equity Strategists again. The sustained rally in both global and Indian stocks is the reason. It was generally expected that the rally would lose momentum and selling would resume. But, the rally has regained strength and spread into the most unexpected places. Domestic markets are seeing…
India heads into a very critical economic phase. On the macro front, we need to manage our inflation, exchange rate and deficits better. We need to moderate the impact of potential swings in these three factors. We will always stay in a state of alert to ensure things remain under…
Macro signals play a very important role in deciding the market trajectory. The Jackson hole speech by Jerome Powell has clearly signalled that interest rate hikes in the USA are here to stay. Powell unequivocally states that there is no space to stop or pause interest rate hikes. He clearly…
A bear market rally is an opportunity that you are never prepared for. It catches you by surprise and continues to surprise you with how far it can go, and how long it can last. Bear market rallies are mostly unpredictable. But they have the tendency to make you believe…
Every one of us values our independence, the freedom to make our choices, to choose our lifestyle, fashion our careers, and live life our way. All these choices require one basic supporting factor, which is financial independence. Whatever we aspire to do, we will always need to be well provided…
The markets have run up too fast in July. Investors are wondering if this run-up is sustainable. That’s a question for which there are no easy answers. Markets can run up very quickly on the back of liquidity. When liquidity increases rapidly, the run-up can gain more velocity than we…
The week saw the return of FIIs as buyers in the equity market. This was completely unexpected. The resulting outcome saw a revival in the quality trade. Stocks which were already trading at reasonably high valuations were favoured, given the lower expectations set by analysts. By setting lower expectations, the…
We anticipated that there would be a need to reset expectations. This result season clearly seems to be confirming our fears. Several marquee IT companies, Reliance, and top private banks like HDFC and Kotak are all falling short of earnings expectations. Clearly, markets were expecting more than they should have.…
Result season has begun on a note of disappointment. The reasons are more related to the market’s expectations. In a volatile economic context, the market should usually tone down expectations as business volatility spikes up. Contrary to that approach, the markets have been very slack in resetting their expectations. Analysts…
Turning market volatility into a friend requires conviction. When markets lose confidence, it translates into selling stocks without bothering about intrinsic value. The selling becomes so indiscriminate that it turns into volatility. During such times, investors must be completely focused on intrinsic value. Focusing on the intrinsic value of falling…
The twin deficit problem is not new to India. Whenever we had adverse forex flows, very high crude prices, falling exports or strong imports of non-essentials, our trade deficit would widen. When growth slowed, revenues fell, Government expenditure went out of control, tax buoyancy tax collections weakened, subsidies soared, and…