The commodity super cycle played itself out over the past decade putting the user businesses under severe stress. Margins of commodity user industries experienced a sustained squeeze as businesses struggled under the load of rising interest rates, falling demand and high raw material costs. Now commodity prices have crashed and it is the…
What should we expect from the markets? Should we wait even to decide what our expectations should be? We see investors getting more indecisive. Ironically, Indian investors get indecisive exactly when global investors get very decisive. Global investors believe other emerging markets are relatively more attractive than India. So, they…
FII’s are taking out money now. They are always opportunistic” I heard an investor crib about how FII’s were bringing our markets down. Why should FII’s remain invested if they find opportunities elsewhere that are more attractive? It is natural that they choose the best among global options. When they…
Your seat belts sign is on. Please stay seated until further instructions. “Haven’t we heard this before when a flight we took hit air pockets? The Indian economy has hit an air pocket. The monsoon which is beyond the control of governments threatens to play truant. What is in store?…
Results of the fourth quarter have been anything but reassuring. With low oil prices, low commodity prices and falling interest rates, we expected more. What really went wrong? Who is really to blame? The investment cycle is just beginning to revive and new projects are very few. The pipeline of…
Party conversations on the economy are a bit sour these days. Especially, if there are industrialists in the room. Trying to understand the reasons gives one a strange insight. Indian industry is no different from other interest groups believing in entitlement. Much as they talk about globalizing their business and…
The worst of the times for an economy is when confidence runs lowest, people have lost faith in their government, the currency begins to wobble and the stock markets tank. But, these are not really the worst of times for investing in equity. In the current era of mini black…
Investing is probably the only vocation in which those without their skin in the game enjoy disproportionate influence. I am referring to the analysts. Men and women who sit on judgement on stocks and sectors, they aren’t allowed to invest in any of them. So, what judgements they pass on…
“Why is there so much gloom?” A client who believed that nothing could go wrong to the Indian stock market a year ago posed this question. A year ago, he was too sure that nothing could go wrong with our markets. Now, he seems very willing to give up his…
The greatest irony of the Indian economy is the regulatory gap. On the one hand, RBI and SEBI maintain strict vigil over the banking system & financial markets. The regulation is comparable with the best in the world. On the other hand, we have gold and real estate which are…
Most people make investments because they want to. They often ignore & overlook whether they actually need to? Investing works very well only if one questions himself on the need. When the need is not clearly identified, the investing is goal-less. Often when we invest without goals, there is a…