Quick edit: Presumption is dangerous when we try to predict the markets. When everyone presumes the same thing, the actual outcome often turns out to be the contrary. Most analysts believe the markets will rise to new highs in the first half of 2013. One finds very few contrarians on…
Predictions have a simple way of deceiving. They take longer than we think to actualize. A recurrent lesson that we learnt making predictions was that we almost always ended being early. An early prediction isn’t wrong. It simply takes more time and patience to make a prediction work. Our market prediction…
At the beginning of 2012, we were of the view that equities were very attractively priced. The bad news was mostly factored in. The good news wasn’t. This was a classic buy signal and we said so. The markets have performed very decently throughout 2012. Sadly, domestic investors refused to…
The markets always pray for a prophet to guide them. ‘If only we had this seminal mind that takes us through everything!’ is the most basic hope of lay investors. This explains the rationale of having market gurus. Never mind, there is no market prophet. We still have a Buffett…
The government got its act together on FDI in retail, PSU Disinvestment, land bill and Spectrum price corrections within just a fortnight. That it could pull together so much in quick fire mode is a sign of things to come. Reforms are now a dire necessity. Everybody who matters politically…
Whenever the Indian markets rallied, the fundamentals always played second fiddle to Reliance -the index bellwether. ‘There can be no rally without Reliance’; even the walls of Dalal street had this belief plastered all over. As Reliance rose and fell, our market hit bull highs and bear troughs for…
December often sets the tone for the next year’s market trend. The early birds move ahead of the market to capture vantage positions. Last December saw the markets bottom out. Throughout 2012, FII’s have taken full advantage of the absence of the domestic retail investor from equities. They have been…
Delisting was the most preferred choice among companies where the promoters held above 76% stake. When a decision had to be made to either delist or lower the promoter stake below 76%, most companies leaned towards delisting. The merits of having a public listing seemed to be inadequate to deter…
Diwali was a quiet affair on Dalal street. Unusually, the markets fell on the mahurat trade. Investors seem more unsure than ever about which was the sentiment will swing. The usual gyaan from the market wizards did little to investor confidence. So, why are investors fighting shy of equities? Are…
Quick Edit: JIT, Just in time is a brilliant idea that captured the imagination of the manufacturing space. But, when applied to equity investing, the outcomes are mostly disastrous. Why do we say this? JIT works well only when you exactly know the right time to possess something. Investing doesn’t…
Investor perception often gives unmistakable hints of things to come. When most investors believe a particular asset class or investment simply do no wrong, it actually would go wrong. The consensus is often the worst tool to make decisions. This is because it takes too much time to reach a…
At beginning of the year, NIFTY was at 4636. Today it is at 5664, up by nearly 22%. During this period we helped people turn around their existing mutual fund portfolios. If the indices rule higher, there is no need to worry. We can always sell unproductive funds and release…