Podcast Transcript How we develop conviction matters. Everybody agrees that the quality of conviction will determine many things- how we translate conviction into investments, how we allocate money into an investment, and how we hold onto the investment. Generating conviction, growing conviction, preserving conviction and translating conviction are four…
In good years, defensive investors have to be content with the KNOWLEDGE that their gains, although perhaps less than maximal, were achieved with risk protection in place, even though it turned out to be not needed. – Howard Marks Every investor scrutinizes the relationship between risk and…
The power of prescience is not something that is easy to practice in our investing. Knowing something in advance can be unfair advantage if it is from knowledgeable sources. So being fair and prescient at the same time is very important. But, there always is the option to independently anticipate what…
The purpose of monetary policy is to manage inflation, facilitate growth, and regulate credit in the economy. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has a clear mandate to target inflation and maintain it around 4%. In terms of bond markets, 2017 and 2018 are like chalk and cheese. 2017 witnessed…
Indices do have their own way of peaking out. Up moves and peak outs are connected. What happens around an up move leads to a peak out. The up move must be clearly understood. So, let us now deconstruct it. Usually, the defensive stocks lead the index movement. But, this…
Investment Strategy Bond markets may witness volatility over the next few weeks. Debt portfolios could see notional losses because of this. Portfolios can be protected by sticking to instruments with shorter maturities or by either holding investments until maturity. Fresh investments should be made in a phased manner, taking advantage…
Risks and returns are always meant to be viewed holistically. But, how many of us do that? An interesting incident only reminded us how little people respect risks. An investor had been invested in equities for the three-year period between 2014 and 2017. At the beginning of 2018, just as oil…
At a time when everybody has overdosed on equity, elections are looking imminent, macros are getting challenging, and benchmarks are outperforming portfolios, it makes sense to take a re-look at asset allocation. Clearly, the most important thing now is to get our asset allocation right. A wrong allocation can affect…
Podcast Transcript When we find valuations at extremes, it usually is at the most difficult time. We struggle to decide how to deal with them. Mostly, amongst us, the risk averse find it convenient not to deal with them. We find it natural to do nothing. We avoid them. Our…
Stock picking takes far more mind space, time, and effort in every investor’s life. The time dedicated to stock picking far exceeds the time spent on investment strategy. Stock picking and investment strategy are connected in the middle. The reasons are not difficult to decipher. Deep within, we believe that…
Podcast Transcript: Events are flowing thick and fast. Let us look at macros first. A falling rupee. Rising oil. Spiking prospects of food prices. Rising inflation. Looming trade battles. The setting reset has already started reflecting in stock prices. A sharp cut in midcap stocks and indices reflects a clear…
The genesis for the current meltdown in Indian markets must be understood well and remembered for a long time to come. Interestingly, the indices held steady during this period. So, what caused this downslide? Broadly, the markets showed overwhelming faith in smaller companies over the index bellwethers between 2015 and…
