The ability to surprise depends on two things. Expectations and preparedness. When you expect something or when you are too well prepared for an event, there hardly is any scope for a surprise. But, when you don’t expect much and are not prepared for something, the actual event should surprise.…
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy interest rate to a 4-1/2 year low of 6.75 percent on Tuesday, in a bigger-than-expected move that, with inflation running at record lows, could help an economy in danger of slowing down. “I don’t think we have been excessively aggressive,” RBI…
“Do you think I should buy now or should I wait for a little longer?” my conservative friend called to check with me on Thursday. I was curious to know the actual rationale behind waiting. Was it because he believed that stocks would fall further? Or, was it the fear…
“Quality always comes at a price”. This often-repeated argument about mid-caps is suddenly looking a bit wobbly. The reason is that the price has got too stretched for comfort. Several stocks that once enjoyed disproportionate fame and following have lost a third of their peak value. Slowly, the list of…
Global factors will dominate our markets in the coming weeks. Oil prices have trended down and settled to a soft regime. The currency now becomes the primary concern. Everybody has a view on where the rupee should settle. But, the man who actually knows is playing the cards close to…
The commodity super cycle played itself out over the past decade putting the user businesses under severe stress. Margins of commodity user industries experienced a sustained squeeze as businesses struggled under the load of rising interest rates, falling demand and high raw material costs. Now commodity prices have crashed and it is the…
What should we expect from the markets? Should we wait even to decide what our expectations should be? We see investors getting more indecisive. Ironically, Indian investors get indecisive exactly when global investors get very decisive. Global investors believe other emerging markets are relatively more attractive than India. So, they…
FII’s are taking out money now. They are always opportunistic” I heard an investor crib about how FII’s were bringing our markets down. Why should FII’s remain invested if they find opportunities elsewhere that are more attractive? It is natural that they choose the best among global options. When they…