Rising oil and dollar mean only one thing for the Indian economy – trouble in the near-term. Business fortunes and purchasing power are closely intertwined with oil and the dollar. Inflation could rear its ugly head if both oil and dollar become difficult to manage for the government. Stock markets…
The rupee now stands at 72 against the US Dollar. This is an unprecedented low. So far, neither the RBI nor the Government has aggressively stepped in. Is there an investment opportunity for you? When the rupee weakens, the markets react. The yield on the 10 Year Government…
Investors are always so busy celebrating market highs that they miss the peak out moment. So, most investors tend to wake up long after the market corrects. The only way to ensure one is alert to the market highs is to follow an active-passive approach that is dynamic. This requires…
If an asset class is hitting multi-year lows, then we tend to move away from it. On the contrary, when an asset class is nearing multi-year highs, we see the most clamour for it. Investor behaviour tends to shun risk exactly when valuations are very much in favour. The current…
Podcast Transcript The markets are hitting new highs. But my advisor says, “Think long term”. I asked him if we need to book some profits. He says “Do nothing, just let the investments stay.” Friends, keep bringing up these conversations more frequently these days. The problem with…
Opinions are very different from judgements. Investment is a field where we carry both and apply them constantly. Opinions are lighter, presumptive, and easy going. We can like or dislike a personality, a business leader, an industry, or a business. Opinions formed on the basis of instinct rather than inquiry…
Podcast Transcript How we develop conviction matters. Everybody agrees that the quality of conviction will determine many things- how we translate conviction into investments, how we allocate money into an investment, and how we hold onto the investment. Generating conviction, growing conviction, preserving conviction and translating conviction are four…
In good years, defensive investors have to be content with the KNOWLEDGE that their gains, although perhaps less than maximal, were achieved with risk protection in place, even though it turned out to be not needed. – Howard Marks Every investor scrutinizes the relationship between risk and…
The purpose of monetary policy is to manage inflation, facilitate growth, and regulate credit in the economy. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has a clear mandate to target inflation and maintain it around 4%. In terms of bond markets, 2017 and 2018 are like chalk and cheese. 2017 witnessed…
Indices do have their own way of peaking out. Up moves and peak outs are connected. What happens around an up move leads to a peak out. The up move must be clearly understood. So, let us now deconstruct it. Usually, the defensive stocks lead the index movement. But, this…
Investment Strategy Bond markets may witness volatility over the next few weeks. Debt portfolios could see notional losses because of this. Portfolios can be protected by sticking to instruments with shorter maturities or by either holding investments until maturity. Fresh investments should be made in a phased manner, taking advantage…
