Will Trends Turn Decisive?
Three phases of polling are over. We are past the midway mark. Pollsters are slowly spotting a decisive trend. They won’t put out numbers due to electoral regulations. Meanwhile, the markets seem to be responding to domestic corporate results and global trends. Oil is rising. The US markets are about to hit new all-time highs. Trump has stopped bilateral oil trade in oil between Iran and buyers like India. Companies are coming out with their annual results. With the exception of a few, there aren’t many surprises. Companies are buying back shares as it is a more tax efficient promoter friendly way of returning money to shareholders.
The coming weeks will see politics become more decisive as perception games are emphatically won. This election has seen very little anti-incumbency and the markets were earliest in taking cognisance of that trend. So, we had a pre-election rally driven by FIIs. Investors who feared anti-incumbency seem keen to get in over the coming weeks so that they don’t miss out on a post-election rally.
One thing is certain – markets have a mind of their own and move much faster to always stay ahead of politicians. So, the next few weeks are once again set to test that nimbleness of the markets.