The rapid decline in oil, over the past few weeks, has really mixed it up for the markets. Investors who took a certain view of the macros just a month ago when oil hit $85 are now forced to hurriedly review their position. This must be quite harrowing as investment…
Podcast Transcript 2018 is turning out to be a difficult year for many among us. Most investors have not seen their portfolios stay above cost. Most portfolios have lost money. This very much applies to mutual fund portfolios as well. In fact, the losses seem to be higher for…
Being Contrarian is never easy. Most of the time, the Contrarian makes choices that are very different from the consensus. Given that consensus is far more powerful, a Contrarian has to withstand time and performance pressures for a very long time. Only if he holds steady, can he benefit from…
The month of October ended on a positive note for the markets. Trends seem to be indicating that the economy is doing reasonably well. Firstly, the GST collections crossed 1 lakh crore once again. Oil prices softened from the menacing levels it hit earlier in the month. Sales of the…
Podcast Transcript There is more to investing than just generating returns. There has to be a larger purpose. Investing is not a game we play to prove our self-worth. It is not something that can be done casually. But, most of us associate investing with just making money. In…
Have you ever tended to a garden? As a gardener, you would ensure that your plants get enough sunlight, water, and nutrition. But, there is an inherent expectation that your garden will flourish. Imagine you received a handful of seeds. You were told that these seeds would eventually grow into…
Recency bias hurts the most when a bull market ends. We tend to buy investment ideas which did very well in the recent past. This happens across the board. The stocks in favour remain the ones which hit recent highs and gained the most in the past year. We tend…
Podcast Transcript Every portfolio often needs validation. Our ideas are constructed in a particular context and we find that soon thereafter the market context changes dramatically. My own experience from previous bull runs is what comes to mind. When we come out of a bull market, we tend to think…
Investment Strategy: The RBI’s stance of calibrated tightening indicates that rate hikes are possible but not mandatory. As investors, it is important to capitalize on rising yields to structure a layered portfolio. The spread between the repo rate and the 10 Year Government Security is nearly 1.5%. This presents a…
The crack in US markets was long coming. Lest we forget, this is America’s longest bull run in history and their economic problems are far from over. So, what caused this euphoria? Liquidity has been at the core of America’s economic problems and solutions. For a decade, America has been…
The stock markets capitulated this week. The fears were largely overdone. The sharp dip in OMCs clearly indicates the symptom. The markets are clearly gripped by the fear of loss. And, investors dump every stock where they fear further loss. And the very risk aversion they display is causing huge…
Podcast Transcript: Clearly, our markets have walked into a crisis we could have avoided. It was in good measure… our own making. Too much liquidity chasing stocks had made markets way too expensive. But, investors kept pouring money into SIPs. And the markets refused to correct despite FII’s selling…